What are the prospects of the real estate market in this fall 2011?
This question is harassing the real estate industry which tries to find answers. A first in any case: the crisis of sovereign debt this summer and the financial tsunami we are experiencing has already forced the professionals to review very seriously downward their forecasts and scenarios. If 2011 should not suffer too much of a backlash deadly summer break, 2012 is already part of a net position of dropping out.
For Thierry Laroue-Pont , Chairman of BNP Paribas Real Estate Transaction center, expertise, advice , “assuming a scenario of crisis (recession in the United States and the absence of a sovereign state), the destruction of tertiary employment accumulated in 2012 could reach 30,000 posts. A take-up in Ile-de-France 2.3 million square meters is now expected this year and between 2.1 and 2.3 million square meters next year. Last July, the forecast emerged between 2.2 and 2.4 million m² in 2011 and 2.2 to 2.5 million m² in 2012. ” The hypothesis of a more pessimistic scenario is not ruled out. It would plunge the market in a post-Lehman Brothers with levels of demand placed around 1.8 to 2 million square meters … All indicators are for tertiary grade: vacancy rates are projected to increase to 7.6% while than expected rental values are mechanically downward in proportions of – 5% depending on the market. There is little that the logistics market to head a little out of the water with predictions of stabilization in the absence of growth.
In investment, we must be wary of the numbers … 1 st half of 2011 announcing an increase in volumes of 23% over 2010, to 11.3 billion €. “We expect a significant decrease of the amounts invested in 2012. And rising rates “pushed Thierry Laroue-Pont, not hesitating to play down expectations of his department studies & research. While the broker expected a score of 14-15 billion € over the year in July 2011, he turned to a most likely forecast of 12 to € 13 billion with a premium for equity investors, mainly in French Like Scor maintains a goal of increasing its allocation to real estate in 12.5% of its assets in three years. A stress test does not exclude a vintage 8 to € 10 billion. The fall would be tough …
One thing is clear: growth forecasts revised downward in recent days portend tough times for real estate. But no more, no less than other asset classes. “A bubble mechanism is engaged. In the coming months, we expect alternately decreases and increases in prices, high volatility.